Housing Market Predictions for 2024: What Experts Are Saying

As a realtor, staying updated on housing market trends is crucial for helping our clients make informed decisions. We understand that the real estate landscape can be dynamic, and predictions play a significant role in guiding both buyers and sellers. In this blog post, we'll delve into the insights and forecasts from renowned experts as reported on BAM to provide you with a comprehensive view of what the 2024 housing market might look like.

Home Prices: A Balanced Outlook

Predicting home prices can be a bit like forecasting the weather—it's subject to various factors. The experts weigh in on what we might expect in 2024.

Redfin suggests a modest 1.7% decline in home prices. This indicates that there might be opportunities for buyers looking for more affordable options. On the other hand, Fannie Mae takes a more bullish stance, anticipating a 2.4% increase in home prices. This suggests that homeowners may see some appreciation in their property values.

Home Sales: A Mixed Bag

Home sales are a crucial indicator of market health. Here's what the experts foresee:

Realtor.com, Redfin, NAR, and Fannie Mae all predict that home sales will surpass 4 million in 2024. This signals optimism in the market. However, Goldman Sachs and Zillow offer a more conservative estimate, expecting sales to remain below the 4 million mark. This indicates a degree of caution in the market.

Mortgage Rates: Staying Attractive

Mortgage rates can greatly influence buyers' decisions. Here's the consensus on mortgage rates:

All experts agree that mortgage rates will stay below 7% in 2024, reassuring buyers. It's worth noting that none of the experts predict a drop below 6%, which means that while rates are attractive, they won't reach historically low levels.

Detailed Forecasts by Major Entities

Fannie Mae's Insights

Fannie Mae sheds light on some key market dynamics. They anticipate that home sales might see a slight drop in 2024 due to a modest economic contraction. Interestingly, Fannie Mae expects existing home shortages to drive up new home construction in the medium term, which could be an opportunity for those in the market for new homes. Their predictions indicate a 2.4% increase in home prices and an average 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 6.7% in 2024.

Goldman Sachs' Perspective

Goldman Sachs offers a unique viewpoint. While they predict suppressed home sales until 2026, they believe that home values will continue to increase for the next four years. Chief economist Jan Hatzius anticipates the first Fed rate cut in the third quarter of 2024, potentially impacting mortgage rates.

Realtor.com's Projections

Realtor.com focuses on affordability. They expect home prices to drop 1.7% year over year in 2024, which could make homeownership more accessible. With an average mortgage rate of 6.8% for the year, they aim to strike a balance between affordability and market health.

Redfin's Market Insights

Redfin offers an interesting take. They predict a 1% year-over-year decline in home prices during specific quarters, marking the first home price drop in a decade. Mortgage rates are expected to fall but remain above 6%, which means buyers can still find relatively attractive financing.

NAR's Expertise

The National Association of Realtors shares its outlook. They foresee a substantial rise in existing home sales, with a 13.5% increase from 2023 to 2024. Housing starts are predicted to reach 1.48 million, indicating potential opportunities for new homebuyers.

Zillow's Market Projections

Zillow focuses on adaptation. As homeowners adjust to higher mortgage rates, Zillow expects an increase in new listings. Home price growth is expected to be flat in 2024, which could be advantageous for buyers. Rental demand, especially for single-family homes, is expected to surge.

Ivy Zelman's Expert Opinion

Ivy Zelman provides valuable insights. She anticipates a relatively flat housing market in 2024 with a slight downturn in the new home market. Her projections suggest a 7% increase in existing home sales in 2025, but this may be contingent on mortgage rates.

Ryan Serhant's Predictions

Ryan Serhant offers eight predictions for 2024. Markets may continue to differentiate, with some returning to pre-COVID patterns. Increased national home searches are likely, as remote work allows buyers to explore beyond their current market. Suburbs are on the rise, driven by privacy and local amenities. Branded residences with luxury services may gain popularity. Downtown areas might incentivize development and revitalization efforts. Investor sentiment toward real estate may impact housing options. Home prices may rise as demand outpaces supply. Interest rates are expected to stabilize, supporting a robust housing market.

While housing market predictions are subject to change, these insights from top experts provide valuable guidance for navigating the 2024 real estate landscape. As your trusted realtor, we're here to help you make the best decisions in this ever-evolving market. Remember, markets provide the context, but your strategy ultimately shapes your outcomes. We look forward to assisting you in your real estate journey in 2024 and beyond.

Stay tuned for more updates like this, and feel free to reach out for personalized advice on navigating the housing market! 

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